Week 5: Social Ecological Systems Pt. 2 - Post 2

Social Ecological Systems Pt. 2 

          Moving forward humanity must prepare itself for changes that are non linear and unpredictable. Entering the Anthropocene, society and ecosystems are connected on a much deeper level then ever before. This interconnectedness translates into what is called teleconnections. Telleconnections are when one part of the world cascades itself in other parts of the world. For example, when a rainforest is cut down, changing rainfall patterns in Latin America, this can translate and propel itself to change rainfall conditions and temperatures in inner China. Over the last thousand years of human development society has build an entire economy on the basis that changes in the environment are predicted. However, society now exists in a situation where surprise is the core element of change. These surprises exist because of inconvenient feedbacks. These are big, surprising events that occur based on global drivers translating themselves to unexpected outcomes. Professor Johan Rockstrom described the situation as "When looking at the large scale changes in the social and environmental systems, [one] comes to the recognition that we live in a much more complicated hyperconnected world where changes in the climate system affects ecosystems, which together influences both human health, economics, and development at large". Humanity must build resilience among social and environmental systems. Ecosystem disasters and shifts cannot be predicted, the earth is moving rapidly into a position where interactions and inconvenient feedbacks are part of the normal, geopolitical situation. As part of this new normal, it is important to consider the Earth's own resilience. Earth resilience is the ability of it's ecosystems to operate together and regulate the ability of the Earth system to remain in a Holocene like state or propel itself outside of that state. This happens either through negative feedbacks, meaning processes that dampen change, or through positive feedbacks, where processes accelerate change. There are thousands of systems all over the globe that contribute to regulating Earth conditions. Ranging from the ocean and marine systems like coral to savannahs or forests. These systems are so important because of what science calls cross-scale interactions. For example, a carbon sink in a local forest interacts with the atmosphere, so from a local, to a regional, to a global scale these interactions exist. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution humans have emitted around 545 billion tons of carbon, and as carbon stays in the atmosphere for over 1000 years, what people emitted 200 years ago is still warming the planet today. The big question is whether all 545 billion tons of carbon emitted are contributing to the 1 degree global Celsius warming seen this century? And of course the answer is no, because actually over half, 55%, of these emissions are absorbed by the living biosphere. 155 billion tons have been absorbed by the ocean, and the other 150 billion tons have been taken up by land based ecosystems like forests and farmland. It is the net remaining carbon in the atmosphere, only 240 billion tons, which has contributed to the 1 degree warming. This situation is proof that the Earth system, through it's biogeophysical processes is applying Earth resilience to try and remain in it's current stable state, by dampening the impacts of human disturbance. And, although the Earth itself is resisting humanity's impact, there is only so far it's ecological and social ecological systems can be pushed. Science calls these boundaries tipping points, or when a system changes fundamentally it's structures and function, and tips over from one stable state to another stable state. At the basis of tipping points are changes in feedbacks. Feedbacks are the major underlying regulating processes that hold a system in a particular state. An example is the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Over the last 30 years there has been an incredible decline in ice volume in the arctic. Every summer there is less and less ice covering the poles due to rising global temperatures. Traditionally the sea ice extent in the poles had a positive feedback loop promoting cooling. Meaning that the white ice reflects sunlight and contributes to cooling, so as temperatures get cooler more ice forms and the cooling continues. But, in recent years the sea ice has seen a huge change. Temperatures have risen annually and the ice is melting at unprecedented rates. Now, for two weeks of the year in July, the sea ice extent is totally melted. This change has almost entirely flipped the feedback that promotes cooling to promoting warming. Jason Box as the Byrd Polar Research Institute concludes that during the two weeks when the ice is totally melted, and sunlight is absorbed on Earth and not reflected, the feedback corresponds to a new injection of 300 exajoules of heat. For reference, the annual energy consumption in the US is 200 exajoules. And, it is this occurrence when Earth changes directions in feedbacks that tipping points occur. It is these massive envrionmental systems subject to change that has caused science to try and identify the systems in the world where shifts might occur and tipping points might be reached. Humans have intertwined with ecological systems causing the Earth to be hyperconnected and despite great resilience, very vulnerable to tipping points.
          The question of this generation is how to grow sustainably in a world of social-ecological issues that range from every local to global system on Earth? Humanity must figure out how to navigate development as it moves from the Holocene to the Anthropocene, understanding both pressures and tipping points. All together, allowing the exploration of what is a safe operating space for development?