Week 11: Moving Towards Global Sustainability within Biophysical and Social Boundaries - Post 2

Moving Towards Global Sustainability within Biophysical and Social Boundaries 

              With any problem it is first important to recognize the problem, then recognize what caused the problem, and finally find and carry out a solution. For global sustainability, danger zones in the nine planetary boundaries as well as social issues are the problem. Anthropogenic overuse of resources and a disconnection from the biosphere caused the problem, and now it is time to talk about the solution.
               The first thing to consider when thinking about a safe operating space for humanity is existing structures of global governance. What are those structures, and how are they contributing to the global discussion. It is critical to realize that the solution here is not about creating one static body that makes decisions as a world government. Instead complex interactions and cooperation between state and non-state actors at the global level is favorable. Currently there are two emerging trends in the sustainability discussion: more international government agreements and more actors. Each of these agreements, like the Paris Agreement, are more complex then the last, and as different actors, like ESGP or the Earth System Governance Project, get involved the complexity grows. The science community agrees that both of these trends have created fragmentation and segmentation. Different global agreements cause different layers of decision making that are decoupled from each other; nations lack coordination and an overall view of the challenges at hand. This causes what is called gridlock, a phenomena where there is an increasing number of global challenges but nation-states are not able to agree on tangible solutions. Each state and non-state actor has veto power, and the more that are involved the higher the volume of disagreements. Overall there are three main challenges to a global agreement on sustainability: complexity, fragmentation, and gridlock.
               It is clear that global environmental government is going to need reform to ensure a sustainable future. Fortunately, there are several emerging perspectives on global governance that have promise. The first is called deep institutional reform. This builds on the idea of reforming critical pillars of environmental governance, and creating a completely new architecture that is better suited to deal with the current challenges. One idea is to reform the voting rules in several states and global organizations. Instead of a unanimous vote, it is a majority vote that goes through. The hope is for faster and more ambitious decision making. The second perspective is network revolution. This says no, it is impossible to move ahead with institutional reform; instead focus on strengthening partnerships between states or between the public and private sectors. This perspective focuses on a few countries creating ambitious goals, and hoping that over time more countries choose to get involved. The hope here is that networks of polycentric governance are more flexible and more apt to deal with changes and complexity. The third emerging perspective is legal transformation. The idea focuses on creating different interpretations of existing laws in ways that push humanity towards sustainability. Examples are redefining international human rights laws or creating some sort of planetary boundaries declaration. A relevant observation here is that advancements with the law evolve non-linearly. There will be actors lobbying for some sort of change for a long time and nothing happens. Then suddenly the idea goes from being discussed by a small group of people to something that is a global institutional norm. Finally, the fourth perspective is global citizenship. This focuses mainly on citizen participation, global democracy, and cosmopolitan democracy. The idea here is that states and nations are reaching gridlock because the people are not part of the decision making process. Decision making is happening behind the scenes, in small groups, with limited insights from citizens. The thought is if you reform international organizations to allow for wider participation from citizens, civil societies, and non-governmental organizations it will open up decision making and create more ambitious and probable solutions. This is clearly a very complex issue, and no one of these perspectives is the correct solution. It is going to take a combination of all of these ways of approaching governance to really find a workable solution.
               There are three pillars which form the basis of modern thinking about sustainable development-social, environmental, and economical-and how they are arranged it vitally important. Currently this three pillar approach looks more like what environmental economists call the Micky-Mouse economy. With the economy being the face and social and environmental factors being the ears. This model conveys how society views the importance of each of the pillars. The economy is occurring and developing at the expense of natural capital, the environment, and human capital, cheap labor, which enables hyper-consumption around the world. Simply put, this model is no longer amenable to modern society. There must be a shift to an environmental and social centric economy. The ideal model is three concentric circles where the economy lies within humanity, and humanity lies within the environment. This may seem utopian, but it is very much possible. The Montreal Protocol from the mid-80s is an example. Science recognized that emissions of chlorofluorocarbons were destroying the protective ozone layer. The governments of the world saw this and came together. They did not take a relative policy of percentage reductions, they forbid damaging ozone substances entirely. They put a cap on the substances and mandated the safe operating space. If society did it then, they can certainly do it now. The idea of a social and environmental bound economy may also seem like it will limit growth, but again that is not the case. Half jokingly, members at the Stockholm Resilience Center coined the term planetary soufflé. Which meaning that, like a soufflé, the economy should be able to grow within the finite safe operating space of the planetary and social boundaries. There is a large basis of analysis that shows sectors of the economy like energy, infrastructure, and agriculture can operate sustainably within these boundaries. A low-carbon world economy is possible. There will need to be increases in food production to match population growth, but that can be done through sustainable agricultural innovations. The same goes for building infrastructure. Two-thirds of the world's cities needed by mid-century have not been built yet. Why not build them in a sustainable and resilient way? Along this path there will also have to be lifestyle choices, but they are extremely tangible. Human values can be reconnected to the biosphere. The huge populations in cities have the ability to place much less emphasis on consumption. Ultimately, it is a social, technological, and political journey society must embark on if there is truly hope of taking on the realities of the Anthropocene.
               For the world to actually transition into a safe operating space a prominent challenge is the transition of the world energy systems. This is considered a double challenge because it is not only about the biophysical boundary, but also recognizing the tight connection between energy use and world economic growth. The world economy has predominantly grown from the era of cheap and accessible oil. Countries have flourished under the vast consumption of this cheap resource. Unfortunately this resource is non-renewable and finite. Based on price trends and resource availability it is undeniable that the era of cheap oil is in the past. This however can be beneficial as it provides an incentive to transition to renewable energy systems. A key parameter in this regard is called energy return on investment. Which means the value received for each investment for extraction of energy. The return on energy being so large over the last 100 years benefited many countries economic growth to where it is today. The oil industry saw investment returns often exceed 100 in the early 30's and 40's. However, today the industry is quickly moving towards levels of 30 to 15. Historical economic trends show that society is not sure how to operate when energy returns go below 10 to 15; another reason to explore innovative solutions in the lane of renewable energy. It is time to realize that staying within the safe operating space for the environment is important, and coupled with the recognition that the "polluting, dirty, and climate-destroying" energy systems are becoming more expensive and less efficient makes renewable energy very attractive. This transition is not only possible, but it can be economically competitive. That is the key when considering energy as a sustainable pathway to the future.
               Innovation and new technologies play a critical role in a sustainable future, but precaution must be applied. A very good example of the risks present with developing technology is the Bolivian Titi Monkey. This new species of monkey was discovered in Bolivia in 2004. The organization that found the monkey needed a way to get funding for protection and awareness of this new species. They created an online auction that auctioned off the naming rights of the monkey. Their goal of raising money was successful, but not without drawbacks. The winner of the auction was an online casino company called the GoldenPalace.com. The official name of the newest species of Bolivian monkeys: The GoldenPalace.com Titi Monkey. This example is a good illustration of the new challenges society will face from the next generation of technology. In the end, the magnitude of environmental change and the risk of tipping points is worthy of technological advancements, it is just unclear the extent at which these advancements should be limited. Science is still debating whether or not the GoldenPalace.com Titi Monkey is the right step towards an innovative future.
               The next important aspect of finding global sustainability is urban areas. Urban areas are expanding, there is and has been a massive shift of populations moving from rural to urban living. These urban areas are actually expanding much faster then the population; creating urban sprawl. This is worrisome because the rate of land, and especially agricultural land, consumption is growing fast. One must consider the aspect of expansion of really large, megacities cities worldwide, while at the same time that fact that there will be huge amounts of population growth in small to medium cities. With these two factors combined there is a lot of land being consumed. As urban population grows, it is also important to consider that general population is growing. Humanity will need more resources to provide for the growing population,;and then even more resources as people move into cities and become more affluent and increase their consumption of red meat for example. So dependence on land grows even more. An example of this is London. Today, London requires an area 125 times the size of the city to sustain its population. That is the size of the UK's entire productive land surface. That is why it is so critical that nations recognize the importance of sustainable production. Local governments need to address land consumption and management moving forward. As Ban Ki-moon writes "the principle message is that urban areas must offer better stewardship of the ecosystems on which they rely". Looking ahead to 2030, studies show that 60% of expected urban land is yet to be built. There will be an enormous investment of infrastructure in the coming years. To ensure a sustainable future it is important that that investment is made sustainably. That is the key; get urban development onto a "greening" path. The other great challenge is age. The majority of people living in cities in the future will be below the age of 20. Here lies a huge educational opportunity. There can, and needs to be a conscious effort to engage urban dwelling young people in managing, restoring, and living sustainably in an urban environment. It is absolutely possible to engage cities in sustainable development, everyone just has to come together and say "we've got to do it".  
               The final aspect for finding global sustainability is food. Today more than half of the world's population lives in cities. Those who live in cities are fundamentally disconnected from where their food comes from; they are disconnected from the entire process of agriculture really. Part of this has to due with global trade. Where global trade allows urban citizens to consume food from all over the world. So there are a set of challenges that society faces in finding sustainability in food production. The first is again that urban dwellers do not understand agricultural production. The second is that urban populations are wealthier. They have higher consumption rates, and different consumption rates. In a city people eat things like meat, fruit and vegetables. That is different then the traditional rural grain-based diet. The third is that larger cities means no more local food production. All of urban food will be produced far outside the city areas. The fourth challenge is changing cultural values in urban areas. Technology advancements cause globalization. City populations have become more westernized. Vegan, vegetarian, and overall healthier diets are gaining popularity. These type of western diets are very different and more resource demanding. The fifth, and final challenge is the influencing power of urban dwellers. The mass populations in cities are directors of the free market system. When urban dwellers change their diets, it is transferred into the market system. An example is mangrove areas on the Thailand coasts. These areas have been massively deforested to produce jumbo shrimp aquaculture. That consumption is driven by rich urban consumers in the United States and Europe. There is a lot to consider when thinking about sustainable urban food production, but it is not an impossible task. There are many ways, and many different things society can do to combat these challenges. Encouraging individuals to find out what is important to them, and to think more about what they ate for lunch and where it came from is a great place to start.
               In the end there are many, many things to consider when finding solutions for a sustainable future. The most important thing to remember though, is that it is possible. Each factor and aspect of staying within the safe operating space for the environment and humanity has it's own problems and solutions. Look at the huge, overall picture and break it down into manageable pieces. Humanity can reach global sustainability, everyone just has to come together and get down to it.