Week 12: Conclusions - Post 1

Conclusions - Notes

Lecture 1 – Development of the Sustainable Development Goals – Professor Johan Rockstrom

-There seems to be three conventional choices to our future, which is debated in all the negotiation:

The Party is Over: there seems to be three conventional choices to our future, which is debated in all the negotiation; from climate change, to biodiversity, desertification, chemicals, trade; and the first perception is that the rich nations, the rich minority in the world, largely the industrial countries, have had this fantastic journey of wealth and economic growth occurring at the expense of the Earth system. And now we're waking up to the science, and the rich world is telling the poor world that, "Sorry guys, the party is over. You came too late. We're pushing you off the ladder, and now we all have to chew the sour pill, and simply lock ourselves into a much, much less attractive future in terms of economic growth

Contract and Converge: The second approach seems to be that, "Well, things are going really bad. We all need to contract and converge, and this will be painful. It's a burden-sharing pathway. Even the language in the negotiations uses this term." Moving towards sustainability is a burden. In fact to the extent that many politicians say that, "Well, now that we have economic problems, we can not afford to take on this burden of taking care of the environment or the climate system," which clearly violates everything that science is telling us.

Business as Usual: And the third one is to say, "Well, let's simply put the head in the sand, cross our fingers. Tipping points, probably something that hopefully cannot be correct," and just move along and hope for the best.

-neither of these, are nor attractive, nor the pathway for the future. Instead the future lies in redefining sustainable development as a trajectory for growth and human well-being within a stable Earth system. And this is profoundly new opportunity, and a new way to address the pathways to the future.

-Science is increasingly connecting between the Earth system science and the policy domain by putting forward analyses, such as this one, which indicates clearly how we could envisage a transition towards a sustainable development paradigm where the economy serves society within a safe operating space

-Now the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, the knowledge platform in the world set up by UN Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon to support the implementation of the SDGs, has suggested a set of Sustainable Development Goals entirely in line with planetary boundary thinking.

-So this is an example of how the world is gradually moving towards a paradigm of development within planetary boundaries.

-[Compared to quantitative social goals] Let's now look at the sister goals on planetary boundaries. Here we have all four of them, and I've taken the most concrete targets under these goals. And if you read carefully, you'll see there's nothing like a quantification. There's no attempt to set quantified science-based targets. Good language, but not putting us on a trajectory that we need, because we all know that what we measure is actually what gets operationalized and taken seriously.

*So to put it very simple, there is no possibility for us to eradicate poverty, to eradicate hunger, unless we meet the global sustainability goals on climate, oceans, and ecosystems. *There is no negotiations with the Earth Systems

Lecture 2 – Science in the Anthropocene – Professor Johan Rockstrom

*The policy domain is making enormous advancement based to a very significant extent on the knowledge provided by science, but that's been largely diagnostics. Is science now prepared to also step up in contributing solutions? And the exciting answer is yes.

-But I'd just like to remind us all that we also have the sister of the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, IPBES, which is now in place to do the same type of knowledge synthesis on ecosystems and biodiversity as a support for decision making. And Finding Sustainable Development Solutions Network, which is a broad global platform of knowledge for change.

*The driving force behind new initiatives such as future earth is the recognition that the Anthropocene requires a new kind of science.

Lecture 3 – Reflections on Taking Action in the Anthropocene – Various Speakers

No Notes

Lecture 4 – Key Messages and Final Remarks – Professor Johan Rockstrom

-We often portray ourselves as the big culprits of environmental change. I would like to argue that let's rather see ourselves as not those who consumed the planet, we're now those who are stewards of the planet. We're in the driving seat, we have a choice, if we want to thrive in the future it's now time to recognize that the Anthropocene is the story of great risk, but it's the story of the privilege of having this knowledge.

-But now, over just the last 20 years, we've shifted into having a large world on a relatively small planet. It means we are in [at] saturation point; we're hitting the ceiling of ecological capacity of the Earth system to support human development. And of course when Mother Earth starts sending her invoices it is time to react, and that's the shift in paradigm.

-And often it's said that well, you know, but environmental scientists have been warning for 50 years that this is something that will occur. And I argue, and I hope you've received the knowledge to convince you, that yes, the warnings came early but they came well, well before we had empirical evidence that we really were facing problems. In fact, Rachel Carson was a tremendously insightful person who well before the dangers warned humanity. That was a proactive warning to help humanity. Now we're reacting to the evidence we're standing on. And that's a very different situation.

[Pictured] The Quadruple Squeeze

-Now because it is now, right now, that two giants collide. The first giant being the fact that so far it's a rich minority that has caused the major environmental problems we see, but we're now having a future where we will most likely have not one but four, five, six billion co-inhabitants on Earth with an average income equivalent to the rich nations of today. This is a tremendously positive story, the right to development among all is now at reach. We can eradicate poverty in the world. But if we follow an unsustainable pathway this will take us much, much more rapidly and accelerate even further a journey in the wrong direction. The second giant is that so far nature actually has responded relatively in incremental and predictable ways. But it is now we start seeing the first signs of abrupt tipping points. It is now we see the first evidence of potentially irreversible melting in parts of Antarctica, irreversible and accelerated melting in Greenland, the real risk of collapse of large parts of tropical coral reefs, the real risk of a flip in tipping point from rainforests to savannahs. This was not in the past. It's a giant wakening up right now. So this is the juncture where we need to urgently move towards a safe operating space.

What is our desired state for the planet? And if we can answer that question what are the environmental processes that regulate that stability? What are the planetary boundaries that can enable us to stay safe? And that led to the planetary boundary framework.

-We have talked through the lectures, of the concepts around limits to growth, carrying capacities, different analyses of tipping elements, tipping points, which are all tremendously important. In fact, so important that the planetary boundary work stands upon the shoulders of these advancements.

-A quite simple way of understanding this is that it's equivalent to playing football or soccer. You know, that game you would never, ever think of playing if you wouldn't have a line that shows exactly what the playing field is. You put a line and then you have a referee that says very clearly when the ball transgresses the boundary and the ball is out of game. You're not allowed to play outside of the boundary. But inside the playing field, inside the safe operating space, you can actually play like Zlatan, you can play fantastic economic growth or football. Or you can play as lousily as I would do in that safe operating space. Nothing hinders you to prosper inside the playing field. And that is the challenge and opportunity with a framework like planetary boundaries.

-So this is an enormous challenge for humanity, but also provides large opportunities. And we've been discussing quite profoundly in the course whether this is in contradiction with economic growth. Our conclusion is that that is certainly not the case. Rather it's an opportunity to now explore economic growth within the safe operating space of our planetary boundaries. And we've been illustrating that in form of this planetary soufflé where the growth of the economy can occur within a space, and we have to be careful to avoid collapses in that economy.

"people are embedded parts of the biosphere, and now shape it in the Anthropocene, from the local to global scale, today and in the future, and at the same time, we need to now recognize, that people, we are fundamentally dependent on the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development in the future." -Carl Folke

*But the philosophical side, to me, is that is all boils down to the very, very simple recognition that if we can become truly successful stewards of the remaining beauty on Earth, we will be very successful also in being able to secure economic growth and development. Because everything that matters for the economy resides in the nature around ourselves. Outside our window, locally where we live, to the large systems that regulate Earth resilience.  

Reconnect ourselves, reconnect our societies, reconnect our economies to the biosphere

-I will also end by reminding us that the situation is urgent. We just have 5-10 years to transition towards a safe operating space if we want to avoid the unacceptable risks that science is now showing clearly that we face.