Week 12: Conclusions - Post 2

Conclusions 

               The main point here is that there exists a safe operating space below the ceiling of planetary boundaries and above the floor of social issues. Within that space lies a sustainable economy. If humanity can successfully transition into that space, global sustainability will be achieved.
               The biggest certainty in environmental science is that the future is unknown. However, societal trends seem to provide "choices" for the future. So far, there are three conventional paths that humanity could go down. The first is The Party is Over. The perception is that all the wealthy nations, the rich minority of the world who have had this fantastic journey of wealth and economic growth at the expense of the Earth system will eventually wake up to the science. And, when they do the party is over for everyone. They will force themselves, and developing nations into a much less attractive future in terms of economic growth. The second approach is called Contract and Converge. The thought process here is that moving towards sustainability is a burden. Every nation must contract and converge and it will be painful. Many politicians describe it best as "Well now that we have economic problems, we cannot afford to take on this burden of taking care of the environment and climate system".  Which very clearly violates what science and social issues are saying. The third future pathway is Business as Usual. The "Well let's simply put our head in the sand, cross our fingers. Tipping points, probably something that hopefully cannot be correct". Obviously none of these are attractive, nor the pathway for a sustainable and thriving future. As Professor Johan Rockstrom puts it "The future lies in redefining sustainable development as a trajectory for growth and human-well being within a stable Earth system." There is opportunity here, humanity just has to see it.
               Everything to do with global sustainability is based on science, so the questions is whether science is ready to provide not just the problems, but also the solutions. Environmental policy is significantly based upon the knowledge provided by science, but that has largely been diagnostics. Is science actually prepared contribute to solutions? Fortunately, the answer is yes. Currently, there is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change out there providing assessments of climate problems. Now the IPCC has a sister organization, IPBES or the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The goal of IPBES is to do knowledge synthesis on ecosystems and biodiversity as a support for decision making, as well as finding sustainable development solutions networks. The driving force for science based and verified solutions is the recognition that the Anthropocene requires a new kind of science.
               The is a lot of doubt circling the future and science in general, but the science is here, it is time for people to see it. Often the news portrays humans as culprits of environmental change. But, rather then look at it from a viewpoint of consumption and disruption, it is far healthier to view humans as stewards of the planet. Humanity is in the drivers seat and there is a choice. If there is any hope of thriving in the future, now is the time to recognize the Anthropocene. Often, an argument against planetary science is that scientists have been warning for 50 years that something is going to occur. The fact is that yes, the warnings came early, but they came well before science had the empirical evidence present today. In fact, Rachel Carson was tremendously insightful and warned humanity well before the dangers were present. That was a proactive warning, today the warnings are reactive. Dr. Carl Folke has summarized the main point here well as "people are embedded parts of the biosphere, and now shape it in the Anthropocene, from the local to global scale, today and in the future, and at the same time, we need to now recognize, that as people, we are fundamentally dependent on the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development in the future." Once humanity reconnects people, societies, and it's economies back to the biosphere there is a real chance at a just and sustainable future for all.